1. No. The war goes on, and the major efforts aimed at destabilization of the situation in Ukraine have been moved from the front line to the rear areas outside of the anti-terrorist operation (ATO).
2. On the front line, Russian occupation army is not able to force the initiative on the Ukrainian army, and the adversary is trying to implement new methods of fight.
Five key elements of the adversary’s strategy are obvious:
3. Sabotage acts at ammunition depots of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as key element of our defense infrastructure and the most vulnerable one.
4. Terrorist attacks against servicemen of the secret services of Ukraine who act the most efficiently and professionally on the occupied territories.
5. The war in the Donbas is used as a permanent threat that might be activated at any time. The enemy conducts annoying combat activities, marks its presence, and entrenches in occupied areas.
6. More terror on the occupied areas against everyone who is suspected of feelings to Ukraine or cooperation with Ukrainian authorities.
7. Psychological and informational war that is waged and commanded from a single center and spread through Russian, foreign, and a number of Ukrainian media. The purpose is to draw attention to any problems and conflicts in Ukraine.
What do they hope for and will they continue conducting terrorist attacks?
8. Yes, they will. They hope to be able to affect the interior political situation in Ukraine prior to the presidential election of 2019 with force and informational methods. 2019 is the last chance for Putin to guarantee a government in Ukraine that will be loyal to Russia.
9. The Kremlin intends to dictate Ukraine’s national agenda with its provocations and crimes.
10. Russian aggression will not affect rapid development of the civil society and the political nation in Ukraine. Putin does not understand and underestimates the rapid development and structuring of the civil society in Ukraine.
It’s the society, not the government that is the foundation of the nationhood in Ukraine. This is how we are essentially different from Russia, where the state is built on the repressions machine of the secret services only. This is why I am certain that whatever conflicts regarding future development of Ukraine exist within the Ukrainian society, whatever scandals shake it, I am certain we will survive. Internal scandals are just the necessary developmental diseases, the energy of the development. Russia has no chance to defeat this Ukraine strengthened by its volunteer civil society.
How will the adversary act?
11. My forecast is that in the next 18 months the terrorist attacks will not stop; there will be new attempts to incapacitate the facilities of our strategic infrastructure and to escalate the situation at the frontline.
What should we do?
12. We have to make tough and honest conclusions, build the new state, continue developing the critical and independent civil society, and at the same time change the strategy and react to the activities by the adversary systemically.
As I see it, the major test for us is to, first of all, wage the war at all cost within the peace deals, and to inflict losses to the aggressor; second, to hold democratic and competitive election, secure the modernization of the government through internal democratic mechanisms, through patriotic national parties.
The Kremlin definitely understands this well.
The war continues, and we are not losing, despite having a very dangerous adversary.
13. Putin is a d***head!
Yurii Butusov, Censor.NET
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