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 Operational Situation Analysis. August 28, 13:00

Y. Butusov

I will now state my personal and very subjective opinion. And you need to take it considering that the author is a journalist and does not pretend to be the ultimate truth. I'm just very concerned that too many of my predictions for the development of the military operation, alas, came true. Yesterday, at a meeting with Commander-in-Chief Petro Poroshenko, he said that he reads my articles on military topics and is ready to get acquainted with new proposals, if I write an up-to-date and relevant materiall. Ok. I will write very unpleasant things. But it has become customary.

Censor.NETeditor-in-chief Yurii Butusov writes on his Facebook page:

"I wroteabout the withdrawal of troops from the sector D on July 23, Iwrote about the withdrawal of our troops 30 kilometers from theborder with Russia on August 18 - and everything that was written10 days ago, remains completely relevant.

One canonly regret that it is still relevant. I have been criticized bythe "couch hundred's analysts" (people sitting at home and postingon Facebook without any real knowledge of the situation) frominformation centers of the General Staff and the Ministry ofDefense for "alarmism". I can only say one thing to the colonelsand lieutenant-colonels: come to the front at least once. It iseasy to put an avatar of yourself in a helmet, but the fact whatyou have under the helmet must be somehow close to reality. I amwriting this text because five days ago I was near Ilovaisk andtogether with a general and soldiers listened to Russian batteriesconducting Grad launches every 5-10 minutes - in full swing, andthe shelling covered our positions. Now the place where I was is alunar landscape. Everything has been destroyed. That's why I retainthe freshness of perception.


Will PutinStop?

Putinwill stop where we stop him. No one should think that the war willpass him or her over. After Russian tanks, rude Russian andCaucasian criminal gangs will come. Putin gives Ukraine to feedlooters, so they will destroy any business and any life as far asthey reach. There should be no illusions - ask those who fled fromthe Donbas or who lives there. Taking over Mariupol will lead toclosure of businesses, as well as most of mines and factoriesclosed in the Donbas, occupied by Russian mercenaries. The Crimeanversion of occupation for Mariupol means death. First, Russia willdestroy metallurgical plants - competitors of their plants, andsecond, when Mariupol will be deprived of its status of aninternational port, it would be impossible to exports and importthrough it. Only resistance of local residents who alreadyunderstand the difference between Ukraine and Putin's fascism cansave the Donbas.

Chronicle ofescalation. What's going on?

There isa full-scale invasion of the Russia's Armed Forces into Ukraine. ByAugust, resistance of the terrorist groups DPR and LPR had beenbroken by Ukrainian troops. Most of the bandits were destroyed anddemoralized, they deserted and fled. The enemy had success only inthose parts of the front, where units of the Russian special forcesand Russian artillery were fighting. However, they could not stopthe advance of Ukrainian troops. Therefore, starting from August10, regular Russian troops joined the war with Ukraine - there wereplatoons, batteries, battalions. The United States and the EuropeanUnion had almost no reaction to the Russian invasion, and showedthe Kremlin that under no circumstances they could intervene in thewar. The escalation of the war has not caused even the notorious"concern." After he received guarantees of non-interference fromthe countries that guarantee Ukrainian security, on August 24 Putinlaunched a full-scale military invasion by the entire mechanizedunits. Enemy's forces are coming in battalion tactical groups, withmassive support from artillery and special forces


Russiahas attacked Ukraine with at least 7-8 battalion tactical groups ofmechanized troops, reinforced by separate units of artillery andspecial forces, rear units and transport units. The strength of theinvasion is not less than 10 thousand soldiers. The Committee ofSoldiers' Mothers of Russia says the troop invasion consists of 15thousand. Given the supply forces and artillery, which supports theactions of the aggressor from the Russian territory, the number ofgroups can be even larger - up to 20 thousand.

N.B. On a number ofoperational areas the Russian troops have advantage innumbers.

TheEnemy's Plan

The main assault of theenemy was inflicted on the surrounding of Ilovaisk andShakhtarsk-Torez groups of the Ukrainian troops of sectors B and D.The Ukrainian troops in sector D were not ready to repel alarge-scale Russian invasion. They were spread out on a very broadfront, with a view to combat small gangs and small formations ofthe Russian mercenaries. There was no reserve. As a result, Russianarmored group almost without resistance, passed through thepositions of sector D and struck the rear of the troops of sector Bnear Ilovaisk.

The enemyblocked the surrounded troops and subjects them to a massiveartillery bombardment. The priority targets are military equipmentand vehicles of the Ukrainian troops.

The plan of the Russiancommand and its subsequent actions are obvious. They intend to:

1Eliminate the assault groups of the Ukrainian troops. At leastdeprive them of mobility, transport, logistics, heavy militaryequipment.

2 Capture Mariupol andget access to the sea for the destruction of one of the largestcenters of the Ukrainian heavy metallurgy industry.

3 Create the operationalcapabilities for the offensive on the central regions of Ukraine.Yes, you can be sure - the enemy will not stop.

Developmentof the situation:

Unfortunately, the enemycontinues to advance. His goal is to drive the surrounded unitsinto a deep operational trap, make the unblocking impossible orsuccessful retreat impossible.

Operationalobjectives of the Ukrainian military command?

1 Restorethe connectivity of the front.

2 Reorganize the troopsto create assault groups capable of conducting maneuver operationsagainst Russian armored units.

3 Ensure the accessionof military units to restore their combat capability.

4 Reorganize themanagement system to make it flexible and capable of rapidaction.


I willwrite a very unpopular thing, but someone has to. I propose toimmediately withdraw the surrounded groups of sectors B and D.Immediately. Yes, they hold down the enemy by their heroicresistance. Yes, they are holding strategically importantpositions. But the war is won only by holding the position acertain time - we need a victory in the war not in one battle. Weare not at war with the terrorists but with a huge army of theRussian Federation. There is nothing to stop Putin from throwing inadditional forces for the break through. Let's be realistic - wehave forces in the area that can be sent to unblock sectors B and Dand to restore a stable communication with them. But there is adanger that the enemy deeply wedged in our rear, will encircle thisgroup, too. At the same time there is no guarantee of unblocking,as we all understand.

Youcannot effectively fight without the rear, without artillery. Atthe front there are only the heroes, the most persistent andcourageous guys left. They are more valuable than iron. They mustbe preserved as the core of resistance on new positions. Hard forme to say this, but I insist on the retreat. I was driving on theroad to Ilovaisk through Starobeshevo. It is extremely greatposition for the defense. The road is narrow, there are slagheaps,dense foliage. In the presence of heavy artillery, which supportsthe Russian group, the breakthrough of this defense will entailheavy losses.

There were attempts toorganize a breakthrough. And not one.

I proposeto use to reserves to stabilize the defense on the new line.

Give the order to thetroops to break out of the entrapment, with air and artillerysupport. We need to form a "movable curtain" west of Donetsk. Onthe southern front it is necessary to cover the key areas ofArtemivsk, Krasnoarmiisk, Volnovakha and Mariupol.

In view of the numericalsuperiority of the enemy we need to change the strategy andtactics.

Russian advance can onlybe stopped by significant losses.

Our most important value- experienced troops and commanders. They need to be saved, becausethey are our most fearsome weapon.

On the north front Iwould also conduct a reduction of the front line and strengtheningof the maneuverable mechanized units of the Ukrainian army. Withoutwaiting for the assault of the Russian troops on therear.

Managementrestructuring at the front:

1Reorganize the command and control system - reduce unnecessarydispersion of forces by sector. There are only two operationalareas - why scatter the strength onto five sectors? This has longbeen an absurdity.

2 Stop planning thefighting strategy based on the conditions of the police operation.The Ukrainian army should conduct military operations based on thefact that Russia is the main enemy, and the war is atfull-scale.

3 Changetactics of the combat employment. We need to refrain fromstretching the forces in platoons on a big front. Form independentself-contained tactical groups for maneuvering search and destriyactions on a wide front, which shall consist of a core of mobileartillery and mortars, at least 100-150 infantry soldiers andscouts, 5-6 tanks, light armored vehicles. These task force unitsshould be formed only of motivated fighters, soldiers of thevolunteer battalions. In collaboration with the armored groupsthere must be action of special forces and military intelligence.The weakest point in the organization of the military actions isthe interaction and coordination of various types of troops andunits.

4 Allobjectors, military discipline violators should be immediatelyremoved from combat units. Separate building and training unitsshould be formed for them to work in the rear and not violatemilitary discipline and take time away from the commanders ofcombat units.

5 Defensive positionsmust be equipped including in the towns and villages. The townsshall be prepared for all-round defense. The deployment of theengineering and sapper units to set up minefields and engineeringobstacles, build fortifications is necessary.

6 Large-scale mining tolimit the maneuver of the enemy is one of the top combattasks.

7 It isnecessary to begin the deployment of new training battalions ineach combat brigade. Create a training program at least a monthlong.

8 It is necessary tocreate a system of mass mobilization of reservists. That isliterally all capable male population and female volunteers to besent for week-end combat training programs. It will not disrupttheir jobs, but it will provide some basics military training.

9 About the guerrillawar. Modern guerrilla warfare in treeless areas is most effectivewith the use of mining. Guerrilla warfare is conducted in villagesand towns and around them. Because in the areas odf little forestcover a house is the best shelter.

All for Victory

Ukraine has everyopportunity to deflect Putin's aggression. The Ukrainian troopsinflict heavy casualties to Russian aggressors. The enemy can bebeaten. Putin will not bear heavy losses and resistance. First ofall it is necessary to clearly and quickly assess the threat andplan the actions. We need organized resistance of even smallforces, whose purpose is the destruction of Russian aggressors andcriminals demoralizing the enemy. Putin's professional army is verysmall. So he has to send conscripts to Ukraine.

We will win if asbefore, on the Maidan, we realize that the war for independencefrom Putin, from Russian aggression - is a matter of each and everycitizen. Because the war will either heal us and make us a freenation or will destroy everything that surrounds us and that wehold dear.


Источник: https://en.censor.net.ua/r300052