"1. What happened? Russian troops launched a massive counter-attack in the Donbas. It is a military invasion of Russia. Yes, it's a fact. This is something that has already happened. The military situation in the Donbas has seriously changed. Since the offensive of the Ukrainian troops dissected the remains of the DNR and LPR and fighting commenced in Donetsk and Luhansk, the agony of the terrorists was a matter of several weeks. And Putin chose an open war. So on August 10, Russia began redeployment of armored and artillery units of "volunteers." New units - up to 250 armored vehicles, and 100 cannons and mortars. And MLRS. Most important factors are the use by the Russian forces SAM "Strela-10", "Osa" and "Book" air defense system, which makes it impossible to use the Ukrainian aviation in the border areas. And the massive use of the Russian artillery against the Ukrainian troops in the border areas within a 40 kilometer radius causing major losses. We all understand that no "militia" could not prepare hundreds of crews of armored vehicles, artillery crews, air defense systems crews, to organize intelligence, control, communications, repair and supply - this is Russian military. Given the Russian troops shelling Ukrainian troops from the territory of the Russian Federation, a large concentration of the means of radio and artillery reconnaissance, air defense forces, security, communications, procurement, it would not be an exaggeration to estimate the Russian group, which is fighting against Ukraine to be at least 20 thousand soldiers. At that no less than three thousand Russian troops are constantly operating in the Ukrainian territory. Bezler's group stated that it received heavy artillery from the Russian Federation - MLRS "Uragan" and 240-mm self-propelled mortar "Tiulpan".
3 Tactics. Russian troops are tactically solving the task of the destruction of the combat potential of our mobile, mechanized and artillery units. The enemy is cementing defense with powerful armored group which include tanks. During operational pauses the enemy constantly engages our troops with mortars and multiple rocket launcher systems. Electronic reconnaissance, unmanned aerial vehicles and human intelligence determine areas of concentration of our troops, and in accordance with these coordinates very effective artillery strikes are conducted against troops located in the open, without serious fortifications.
What to do?
1. Stop saying that we are doing well, and the terrorists are fleeing. Yes, Ukrainian accomplices of the terrorists, Russian mercenaries-idealists (eg, quite a few of those after Kremlin propaganda hammering) that saw the brutal war with their own eyes are deserting and scattering or simply resort to theft and robbery. Russian staff units, which are now the basis of the resistance and attack troops are fresh and despite the effective resistance of the Ukrainian troops, they fight hard, and Russia never cared about people. The propaganda allows the enemy to fight ignoring the losses.
2. Refrain from active operations of the mechanized troops in the 30-kilometer zone from the Russian border. Yes, it's sad to say, but if we continue to throw our best units under unpunishable fire of the Russian artillery - it will lead us to nothing but unreasonable heavy losses which four of our brigades have already suffered. This zone can be effectively protected only with concrete long-term facilities. It requires serious engineering and dense mining. Installation of minefields, building fortifications is needed primarily in Mariupol, Novoazovsk and Telmanovsk districts. This is not a joke. Russia needs Mariupol - this is one of the largest metallurgical and industrial centers of Ukraine, and from a military point of view, Russia is interested in its total destruction or capture.
3. It is necessary to change the tactics of our troops. stop setting up roadblocks in the open, without fire communication, artillery support, in small groups, without the presence of anti-tank weapons, and intelligence. The troops must take refuge from the fire in the capital facilities of the cities, which provides shelter. The core of combat groups should be howitzer, rocket artillery and mortars batteries and battalions. The main problem of combat employment of our forces is not the absence of some kind of technology but the lack of interaction between the armed forces, the lack of coherence of armored units, infantry, artillery and intelligence. Offensive operations shall not be stopped, we cannot give up the initiative. Situation is such that we can't build powerful defense. There is no density of the troops or engineering tools. We need to consistently focus shock troops for the destruction of the enemy forces - by cutting off projections in the front line, capturing towns and cities. Russian advance can be stopped one way - if their losses are substantially greater than ours. Therefore, each commander if he wants to live in peace on their sector of the front has only one course of action - the creation of attack groups for regular actions against the enemy. Only this can tie up the enemy. Namely, we need to take Horlivka Yenakieve, Ilovaisk, Khartsyzsk, Luhansk, Donetsk. And we need to do it as soon as possible.
4. It is necessary to put into practice the effective mobilization and dramatically increase the density of the Ukrainian troops in the ATO area:
a). Ensure marching refill of the soldiers, commanders and military hardware and equipment of the units operating at the front. It does not require just patriots - we need well-trained people. Do not throw in people into battles, if they had only 15 days for teamwork and combat training. The reserve for the staff units should be temporary formations in the form of territorial defense and volunteer units.
5. It is necessary to change the system of logistics and rear supply. This cannot be done by anything else but a drastic reduction in the Defense Ministry staff by about 60-70%, and resorting to the logistics managers to take over. There can be no reforms there - there is no time. We must hire some competent professionals because the system is rotten.
6. It is necessary to change the system of procurement abroad. The State should provide covert channels for direct import into Ukraine of all items of critical import. Through intelligence agencies and diplomats. The same channels can be used for cheaper purchases. For effective procurement and production of weapons "Ukroboronprom" must be reduced by 70% and "Ukrspetsexport" by 50%. And plans to work with our military-industrial complex should not be based solely on the opinions of these intermediate structures, but above all from the point of view of enterprises.
7. It is necessary to change the attitude of the military and political leaders to special operations forces. It requires an understanding of their nature and combat missions as an independent arm of the service, and not as "good infantry" to guard, escort and assault. There is a need for command on the basis of the Ministry of Defense be led by professionals, not amateurs, such as General X. We need operational coordination of special operations forces by MoD to SBU, and State Border Service. Special services should be fully focused on executing combat missions against aggression. All special forces have to work not only in the function of security but also to conduct the attack and search tasks in the temporarily occupied territory of the Donbas.
8 Valerii Heletei needs to be immediately removed from the post of Defense Minister. It's just absurd. You cannot put a man who is so far from the Ministry of Defense for such a responsible job and wait for some results in time of war. Viktor Muzhenko is a good general and a brave warrior, but he has one terrible drawback - he is very afraid of the political leaders. More than the enemy. He is ready to go in the attack himself but in the offices instead of imposing his opinion, he is trying to guess. Because he is personally engaged in absolutely absurd arrangement of checkpoints on the map. But now the time is different. Now you have to answer not for the process of war but for the victory. Either Muzhenko takes responsibility or he must be replaced by someone decisive and responsible for the result. And that someone should have the right to promote such strong and accountable persons the top. Then the tactical thinking of the commanders will begin to change, especially among the middle and junior tanks.
9. Is it possible to negotiate with Putin? When will this nightmare end?
You cannot negotiate with Putin. Negotiations are a bluff. Putin wants to achieve Ukraine's recognition of occupation of the Crimea and the Donbas, in order to then continue the destruction of the Ukrainian State. Well, why would he need Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk, which he has completely ruined economically? Why would he need the "New Russia", if he has already destroyed most profitable mines, lots of leading industrial enterprises of the Donbas? Putin profits from the destruction of Ukrainian metallurgy - it just increases the price of Russian products. And helps Putin to successfully earn on sanctions by killing off the rivals. Putin needs the whole of Ukraine. Crimea and the Donbas need Zaporizhia, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kherson. And these regions in turn need Kyiv, Sumy, Poltava, Kirovohrad. And there a question of a shared border with the EU rises... Putin will not stop. The war will end when we learn to cause such losses to the aggressor that he cannot easily compensate. Which demoralize the aggressor. Therefore it is necessary to rebuild the society and system of governance - the faster we will switch to wartime footing, the faster we will win.
Will we win?
This is the most important. We will win the war. But when the victory comes depends on the country's leadership. We need lightning reforms that would lead to rapid positive changes in the investment climate. The economy is squeezed like a lemon, and a shower of money will not spill, no matter how much you raise the rates. It is necessary to confiscate property of the supporters of terrorism and separatism - it is the only fast way to fill the budget. Political stability is necessary but it will not come without the reform of local governing. And it must be done every day - so that people who die every day for us, for independent Ukraine, clearly see what they are fighting for. We cannot give them a lot of money now. But we can show them, for the sake of which future the soldiers are covering our quiet life in the rear from the invasion of Putin's orcs."