"1. What happened?Russian troops launched a massive counter-attack in the Donbas. Itis a military invasion of Russia. Yes, it's a fact. This issomething that has already happened. The military situation in theDonbas has seriously changed. Since the offensive of the Ukrainiantroops dissected the remains of the DNR and LPR and fightingcommenced in Donetsk and Luhansk, the agony of the terrorists was amatter of several weeks. And Putin chose an open war. So on August10, Russia began redeployment of armored and artillery units of"volunteers." New units - up to 250 armored vehicles, and 100cannons and mortars. And MLRS. Most important factors are the useby the Russian forces SAM "Strela-10", "Osa" and "Book" air defensesystem, which makes it impossible to use the Ukrainian aviation inthe border areas. And the massive use of the Russian artilleryagainst the Ukrainian troops in the border areas within a 40kilometer radius causing major losses. We all understand that no"militia" could not prepare hundreds of crews of armored vehicles,artillery crews, air defense systems crews, to organizeintelligence, control, communications, repair and supply - this isRussian military. Given the Russian troops shelling Ukrainiantroops from the territory of the Russian Federation, a largeconcentration of the means of radio and artillery reconnaissance,air defense forces, security, communications, procurement, it wouldnot be an exaggeration to estimate the Russian group, which isfighting against Ukraine to be at least 20 thousand soldiers. Atthat no less than three thousand Russian troops are constantlyoperating in the Ukrainian territory. Bezler's group stated that itreceived heavy artillery from the Russian Federation - MLRS"Uragan" and 240-mm self-propelled mortar "Tiulpan".
3 Tactics. Russiantroops are tactically solving the task of the destruction of thecombat potential of our mobile, mechanized and artillery units. Theenemy is cementing defense with powerful armored group whichinclude tanks. During operational pauses the enemy constantlyengages our troops with mortars and multiple rocket launchersystems. Electronic reconnaissance, unmanned aerial vehicles andhuman intelligence determine areas of concentration of our troops,and in accordance with these coordinates very effective artillerystrikes are conducted against troops located in the open, withoutserious fortifications.
What to do?
1. Stop saying that weare doing well, and the terrorists are fleeing. Yes, Ukrainianaccomplices of the terrorists, Russian mercenaries-idealists (eg,quite a few of those after Kremlin propaganda hammering) that sawthe brutal war with their own eyes are deserting and scattering orsimply resort to theft and robbery. Russian staff units, which arenow the basis of the resistance and attack troops are fresh anddespite the effective resistance of the Ukrainian troops, theyfight hard, and Russia never cared about people. The propagandaallows the enemy to fight ignoring the losses.
2.Refrain from active operations of the mechanized troops in the30-kilometer zone from the Russian border. Yes, it's sad to say,but if we continue to throw our best units under unpunishable fireof the Russian artillery - it will lead us to nothing butunreasonable heavy losses which four of our brigades have alreadysuffered. This zone can be effectively protected only with concretelong-term facilities. It requires serious engineering and densemining. Installation of minefields, building fortifications isneeded primarily in Mariupol, Novoazovsk and Telmanovsk districts.This is not a joke. Russia needs Mariupol - this is one of thelargest metallurgical and industrial centers of Ukraine, and from amilitary point of view, Russia is interested in its totaldestruction or capture.
3. It isnecessary to change the tactics of our troops. stop setting uproadblocks in the open, without fire communication, artillerysupport, in small groups, without the presence of anti-tankweapons, and intelligence. The troops must take refuge from thefire in the capital facilities of the cities, which providesshelter. The core of combat groups should be howitzer, rocketartillery and mortars batteries and battalions. The main problem ofcombat employment of our forces is not the absence of some kind oftechnology but the lack of interaction between the armed forces,the lack of coherence of armored units, infantry, artillery andintelligence. Offensive operations shall not be stopped, we cannotgive up the initiative. Situation is such that we can't buildpowerful defense. There is no density of the troops or engineeringtools. We need to consistently focus shock troops for thedestruction of the enemy forces - by cutting off projections in thefront line, capturing towns and cities. Russian advance can bestopped one way - if their losses are substantially greater thanours. Therefore, each commander if he wants to live in peace ontheir sector of the front has only one course of action - thecreation of attack groups for regular actions against the enemy.Only this can tie up the enemy. Namely, we need to take HorlivkaYenakieve, Ilovaisk, Khartsyzsk, Luhansk, Donetsk. And we need todo it as soon as possible.
4. It is necessary toput into practice the effective mobilization and dramaticallyincrease the density of the Ukrainian troops in the ATO area:
a). Ensure marchingrefill of the soldiers, commanders and military hardware andequipment of the units operating at the front. It does not requirejust patriots - we need well-trained people. Do not throw in peopleinto battles, if they had only 15 days for teamwork and combattraining. The reserve for the staff units should be temporaryformations in the form of territorial defense and volunteerunits.
5. It isnecessary to change the system of logistics and rear supply. Thiscannot be done by anything else but a drastic reduction in theDefense Ministry staff by about 60-70%, and resorting to thelogistics managers to take over. There can be no reforms there -there is no time. We must hire some competent professionals becausethe system is rotten.
6. It isnecessary to change the system of procurement abroad. The Stateshould provide covert channels for direct import into Ukraine ofall items of critical import. Through intelligence agencies anddiplomats. The same channels can be used for cheaper purchases. Foreffective procurement and production of weapons "Ukroboronprom"must be reduced by 70% and "Ukrspetsexport" by 50%. And plans towork with our military-industrial complex should not be basedsolely on the opinions of these intermediate structures, but aboveall from the point of view of enterprises.
7. It isnecessary to change the attitude of the military and politicalleaders to special operations forces. It requires an understandingof their nature and combat missions as an independent arm of theservice, and not as "good infantry" to guard, escort and assault.There is a need for command on the basis of the Ministry of Defensebe led by professionals, not amateurs, such as General X. We needoperational coordination of special operations forces by MoD toSBU, and State Border Service. Special services should be fullyfocused on executing combat missions against aggression. Allspecial forces have to work not only in the function of securitybut also to conduct the attack and search tasks in the temporarilyoccupied territory of the Donbas.
8 ValeriiHeletei needs to be immediately removed from the post of DefenseMinister. It's just absurd. You cannot put a man who is so far fromthe Ministry of Defense for such a responsible job and wait forsome results in time of war. Viktor Muzhenko is a good general anda brave warrior, but he has one terrible drawback - he is veryafraid of the political leaders. More than the enemy. He is readyto go in the attack himself but in the offices instead of imposinghis opinion, he is trying to guess. Because he is personallyengaged in absolutely absurd arrangement of checkpoints on the map.But now the time is different. Now you have to answer not for theprocess of war but for the victory. Either Muzhenko takesresponsibility or he must be replaced by someone decisive andresponsible for the result. And that someone should have the rightto promote such strong and accountable persons the top. Then thetactical thinking of the commanders will begin to change,especially among the middle and junior tanks.
9. Is itpossible to negotiate with Putin? When will this nightmare end?
You cannot negotiatewith Putin. Negotiations are a bluff. Putin wants to achieveUkraine's recognition of occupation of the Crimea and the Donbas,in order to then continue the destruction of the Ukrainian State.Well, why would he need Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk, which he hascompletely ruined economically? Why would he need the "New Russia",if he has already destroyed most profitable mines, lots of leadingindustrial enterprises of the Donbas? Putin profits from thedestruction of Ukrainian metallurgy - it just increases the priceof Russian products. And helps Putin to successfully earn onsanctions by killing off the rivals. Putin needs the whole ofUkraine. Crimea and the Donbas need Zaporizhia, Kharkiv,Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kherson. And these regions in turnneed Kyiv, Sumy, Poltava, Kirovohrad. And there a question of ashared border with the EU rises... Putin will not stop. The warwill end when we learn to cause such losses to the aggressor thathe cannot easily compensate. Which demoralize the aggressor.Therefore it is necessary to rebuild the society and system ofgovernance - the faster we will switch to wartime footing, thefaster we will win.
This is the mostimportant. We will win the war. But when the victory comes dependson the country's leadership. We need lightning reforms that wouldlead to rapid positive changes in the investment climate. Theeconomy is squeezed like a lemon, and a shower of money will notspill, no matter how much you raise the rates. It is necessary toconfiscate property of the supporters of terrorism and separatism -it is the only fast way to fill the budget. Political stability isnecessary but it will not come without the reform of localgoverning. And it must be done every day - so that people who dieevery day for us, for independent Ukraine, clearly see what theyare fighting for. We cannot give them a lot of money now. But wecan show them, for the sake of which future the soldiers arecovering our quiet life in the rear from the invasion of Putin'sorcs."