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 PARTY OF REGIONS - ANATOMY OF DEFEAT. WILL YANUKOVYCH RUN IN 2015 ELECTION?

In the great war for power the parliamentary elections in Ukraine were not the main battle but a reconnaissance in force just before the decisive battle - the presidential elections of 2015. The most demonstrative lesson was given to the regime - and today it is obvious that if Viktor Yanukovych does not analyze his mistakes, and the current management system is retained, his chances to fight for a second term are close to zero. So did the regime win or lose the elections?

Despite all the claims of regular speakers for the Party of Regions of the miraculous victory, the actual election results were announced by the President.

According to Censor.NET's source, in a closed meeting with party leaders Yanukovych listened to the excuses and explanations of the head of electoral headquarters Andrii Kliuiev and concluded: "The elections are lost and it is the responsibility of the HQ." What are the arguments used by Yanukovych? First of all, the party did not get the target number of votes - 36%. Yanukovych planned to have an opportunity for independent formation of the government, for which he needs a sustainable majority - without the participation of the Communists.

"It is in the case of the triumph in the parliamentary elections National Security Council Secretary Andrii Kliuiev would become a leading contender for the post of Prime Minister. But after Yanukovych's sentence Kliuiev will remain NSC Secretary. And he is unlikely to return to the post of First Deputy Prime Minister . However, lack of a parliamentary majority is an important but not the main accusation for Kliuiev.

In the end, the Communists as faithful satellites of the pro government party are always ready to support it for a very specific resource. You can buy more deputies. And the victory of the plurality candidates loyal to the party the composition of Regions faction is currently impressive - no less than 220 members.

Kliuiev fell out of favor for one main reason - year 2015. Yanukovych's concern is not the number of party 'bayonets' in the parliament: he is concerned about the catastrophic decline of the results of the Party of Regions. After all, the presidential candidate will not have the supporting life vest of independent candidates. There can be only one person as the head of state.

It is a paradox - compared to the parliamentary elections of 2007 the Party of Regions showed the best results in Central and Western Ukraine. In absolute terms, the party support grew most of all in Vynnytsia oblast - from 12.5 to 17.3% - 30,000 more votes. In Kyiv oblast - from 13 to 21% - by 60,000 votes. In Sumy - from 15.7% to 22% - plus 16,000 votes. In Cherkassy - from 15.5 to 18.67% - plus 15,000 votes. In Zakarpattia oblast the party took first place with 30.8% - an increase by 11 percent compared to 2007! And in terms of votes it is an increase by almost 50,000. Chernivtsi region added 16,000 votes. That is in the center and the west the Regions maintain good dynamics. And in the central regions, where the ratings fell it fell slightly. For example, in Kyiv the support in absolute terms decreased by only 40,000 votes.

All this is small compared to what happened in the East and South. In base regions for the pro government Party of Regions where the regime had hoped to secure the support in 2015, the drop was stunning - like reading reports from the front operations in the Second World War. In Donetsk oblast the losses in absolute terms are 446,000 votes! Homeland of party leaders and the President protested en masse, and the support decreased by 30%.

In Dnipropetrovsk oblast the losses totaled 192,000! And it is guided by a political hope of Rinat Akhmetov - Oleksandr Vilkul, who Akhmetov has high political hopes for.

Luhansk oblast is under complete control of the Regions faction leader Oleksandr Yefremov - 350,000 votes lost!

In Odessa oblast the losses were 170,000 votes despite the fact that governor Eduard Matviychuk resorted to openly criminal methods of struggle with the opposition.

Kharkiv region is headed by real leaders of the organized criminal group Mikhail Dobkin and Hennadii Kernes. Despite the gangster methods of ensuring the right numbers in protocols, the losses amounted to 195,000 votes.

The total losses of the Party of Regions in its base regions which always gave Yanukovych's team the necessary result constituted - nota bene! - 1.5 million votes!

Thus, the situation for Yanukovych in light of problem 2015 is rather grim. The system of election administration has seriously failed. Without a clear and coherent internal policy and changes in the organization of a political campaign Yanukovych can forget about 2015. Right ideology, beautiful and mass advertising campaign, trimming, and media censorship - all this does not work without the trust of voters to the policy and without precise technology solutions to mobilize voters.

The opposition parties openly discuss what results could have been achieved if Udar and Batkivschyna had put forward single candidates.

But the Party of Regions for some reason does not debate on how many candidates could get in the power if there was a single candidate. Funny, but in four Kyiv districts pro government candidates also had a total of more than what the winning candidate of the opposition had. This is most evident in Obolon district where Oleksandr Bryhynets had taken victory. There were four pro government candidates which together took 9,000 votes more than Bryhynets. And they all lost.

On Podol government candidate Mironov did not only have another strong opponent from the authorities but there was even a double registered. How do explain that the government is fighting with itself? In a closed and non-transparent system of governance the election campaign has the political logic and turned into a business process. Everything costs money - registration and removal of unwanted candidates from power, registration and removal of doubles, the formation of election commissions ... The result is obvious.

If the vaunted administrative resources in the election does not even allow the base areas where Regions control everything from top to bottom to ensure the right numbers in the protocols than it is naïve to expect that in two years the situation will improve. Obviously, as the economy continues to decline, the country has no access to cheap budget resources and the achievement of stability fills the citizens with irony, and the people's love for the pro government candidate will not suddenly appear in two years.

And that means that Yanukovych's chances in 2015 can be assessed now.

 
 
 
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