Contrary to Chechetov forecasts
Exit polls and the CEC data allow us to make first conclusions regarding the 2012 elections. And we have to admit that the Party of Regions was not ready even for these intermediate results. Back in September Mykhaylo Chechetov with his usual aplomb predicted: "We did not just win - we will have a faction of 230-240 members, or even 250. 85-90 of them will get through party lists, and around 150 will go through plurality districts." These words looked like bravado even two months ago and even more so now. According to exit polls, the Regions hardly get 70 deputies by party lists. Not for nothing, perhaps, Borys Kolesnikov and Mykola Azarov could not cope with the stress yesterday . There is not a faintest hint at victory, especially a brilliant one. Although the Regions are getting over half of the plurality districts. Fair or not.
On the other hand the three opposition forces (Batkivschyna United Opposition, Udar (Strike) and Svoboda) are gaining more than 50% of votes by party lists. Thus, according to the National exit poll (Razumkov Center) The United Opposition gets 24.7%, Udar - 15.1%, Svoboda - 12.3%. Sociological group Rating results are: the Party of Regions (PR) - 27.6%, the United Opposition - 23.4%, Udar - 14.3%, Svoboda and the Communist Party - 12.5%.
The opposition calmly accepted these numbers. "According to the results of the exit-polls which were made public, it is confirmed that the people of Ukraine support the opposition and not the power," said Yatsenyuk. Incidentally, this opposition result is unlikely to please Viktor Yanukovych. It is already clear that the United opposition candidate has an advantage over the incumbent President in 2015 elections.
"The Party of Regions goes for a cheeky electoral fraud in the East. We have to make adjustments for the cynical and dirty propaganda on TV of people close to the President or oligarchy considering the political repression against our citizens. Under these circumstances the results of the opposition suggest that Ukraine does not trust this government, Ukraine wants renewal and wants to return to democracy and the European path of development," said in his turn Oleksandr Turchynov.
Yet it must be recognized that the surprise for the Party of Regions could be more troublesome would it not be for an unclear position of Klitschko party.
Many, including members of the PR, predicted an unusual success for Udar in these elections. So much so, that several questionable opinion polls where used which placed Udar in the second place in the election. But the results of the exit polls and the data of the CEC should sober a few heads at the party headquarters. Klitschko and his young team have clearly overestimated their strength. Unjustified arrogance prevented Udar from a compromise with the United opposition and thereby caused harm to itself and the opposition. And their results in Kyiv are simply disappointing.
At the same time we can talk about a number of strategic errors on the part of the political force. Of particular note are the districts where Udar insisted on removing the candidates of the United opposition and eventually was devastated there. For example, in Kyiv Oleksandr Brygynets leads in the 217 district. The scandalous District 222 - another opposition representative Dmytro Andriyevskyy is winning. And in both cases, in addition to pro-government candidates, representatives of the opposition have to run against Udar's candidates."
But it is possible that due to the position of Klitschko's party some districts will be lost to the Party of Regions. For example, a PR representative is leading in District 27 in Dnipropetrovsk oblast, followed by the member of the United opposition, and in the third place by a representative of Udar. In this case, a single opposition candidate could claim a victory in the district. Unfortunately, this is not a single case, but a certain rule.
The minimal task was achieved - the party got into the parliament. Last night Klitschko confirmed the willingness of his political force to unite with the Batkivschyna and Svoboda in the new parliament. Curiously, the party representatives spoke on the topic of impeachment. "We are ready, and we will ourselves initiate the adoption of the law on impeachment of the President and after - raise the question of impeachment of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych," said the head of the Udar's election HQ Vitaliy Kovalchuk yesterday. It is a good initiative, even though it was put forward by the United opposition in the very beginning of the campaign. Now it is important that Klitschko team do not lose its fighting spirit. After all, Udar's words and actions have gone their separate ways before.
She had a dream
The election campaign of Ukraine Ahead! (Ukrayina Vpered!) will for many years serve as an example of how not to run in the elections. Complete failure, disaster, end of the world for one separate party ... Thousand more colorful words can be used to describe it but words cannot convey the essence of a humiliating defeat suffered by Korolevska. The results of the exit polls were even more ruthless than the sociology - Ukraine Ahead! is getting around 1.6-1.8%. Humiliating situation highlights the fact that just behind Korolevska a 'mouse fight' between Viktor Yushchenko and Oleg Lyashko parties takes place.
Judging by yesterday's speeches and statements of Natalia, she is in shock, or an inadequate state. "Our greatest responsibility and challenge now is to control every vote at the polling station, and then I am confident that victory will be ours," she said, and expressed confidence that Ukraine Ahead! will overcome the 5% barrier. Also, according to Korolevska, the results of the exit polls are "the average temperature in a hospital." One can only wish her not to find out what kind of hospital is in question.
Honestly, in this situation you need to have extraordinary mental health in order not to fall into madness. Korolevska's campaign unprecedented in terms of financing scale failed. Advertising steps such as involving Andriy Shevchenko and Ostap Stupka did not help. Thus, the new parliament will not have a pseudo opposition party with Akhmetov's people in the list. The Regions will probably have a lot of questions for Natalia Korolevska.
The CEC continues to count the votes and the United opposition is catching up with the Party of Regions. International observers also have to give their assessment of what they saw, although it was obvious that the Regions were not particularly shy in the means of achieving the desired results. Yet a positive trend in society should be noted. Successful failure of a made up Korolevska project which did not succeed despite the money and a glossy image. Ukrainians are not easily bought by a frank political kitsch. The results are also unpleasant for the Party of Regions. Voting on party lists showed that even with fraud and violations the regime's positions are becoming more precarious. Future parliament will probably not become Yanukovych's sterilized pet. Yes, the "fundamental" Communists are unlikely to play against the Regions, but these elections made it clear that recent allies lost sympathy for each other. Who knows how their relationship will develop in the new Rada? For the opposition the main thing now is to protect the results and do not allow the Regions to draw the numbers for themselves. And the fact that all the power of PR is aimed at precisely that is certain.