Weekly The Economist Intelligence Unit in its print special edition "The World in 2013" forecsts for Ukraine increased pace of sales of previously purchased government bonds, increased volume of refinancing of the National Bank and the non-payment of the internal and external debts.
"High interest rates in the interbank market - at certain times they have already exceeded the peak in the middle of the last crisis - say that the emergency measures will not be enough to overcome the shortage of funds in the banking system," notes the authoritative economic media.
The observers note that even the fact that for first time after the crisis, banks have made a profit in 10 months of 2012 amounting to 3.8 billion UAH, does not mitigate the situation.
"In 2013, in the case of unchanged monetary policy of the government and the regulator, the financial hunger in the banking system will continue to grow. External borrowing that need to be repaid, is still quite large, and the refinancing of the NBU does not cover the needs of banks in the money," says the review.
In a crisis of liquidity loan rates remain very high, they will repel anyone's desire to take them even those few who under the present circumstances may be interested in them, so credit will be minimal, writes the weekly.
"This process can greatly enhance the economic downturn which would lead to an official and hidden unemployment, worsening inflow of deposits and increase the amount of bad loans," note the observers.
This situation in the banking system will have a negative impact on neoligarch business, the newspaper writes.
It shall be noted that that the forecast "World in 2013" is an annual special project of The Economist: analysis, forecasts for next year are taken from influential experts, politicians and business people.